Bangladesh’s GDP growth puzzling: South Asian Network on Economic Modeling

Online Report
LAST MODIFIED: 06:05 PM, May 09, 2019

South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), a non-profit analysis organisation, nowadays termed the recent economic process of East Pakistan as “puzzling”, language that the value growth mismatched with the info and numerous indicators of the economy.

Claiming that export and remitment are the first drivers for economic process, the SANEM same the economic process rates in recent years don't match with the fluctuations within the export and remitment flow.

It same the govt. information showed surge privately consumption within the last 2 business years -- 2016-17 and 2017-18 – though export and remitment growth were in the lower state.

“Private consumption growth wasn't too high within the past years. Why did non-public consumption growth record such a pointy increase? Public consumption growth is explained to some extent as a result of the govt. is disbursal. non-public consumption growth may be a puzzle,” same SANEM administrator Selim Raihan at the BRAC Centre lodge in national capital.

SANEM, citing East Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and alternative information, same non-public consumption growth was calculable at eleven.41 per cent in twelvemonth 2017-18 from seven.43 p.c the previous year.

Private consumption growth was three p.c in twelvemonth 2015-16, it said.

“This may be a huge concern that we tend to see the high non-public consumption growth despite low export and remitment growth. Second concern is that we tend to see high producing growth despite low export growth and slow non-public investment,” same Raihan, additionally prof of political economy at University of national capital.

SANEM same domestic demand will become a growth driver with sizeable improvement within the per capita financial gain, however therein case overall rate could fall. Domestic demand can not be a growth driver in a very low-income country like East Pakistan, same Raihan.

The analysis organisation came up with the observation when period of time after the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), non-public think factory, questioned the present year's growth calculable of eight.13 percent, citing incoherency in numerous indicators of the economy.

SANEM additionally questioned high producing rate at thirteen.4 p.c in twelvemonth 2017-18, though export growth was five.81 p.c therein year once the non-public investment growth was additionally slow.

The non-public analysis organisation same high producing growth information doesn't match with poor business surroundings.

It mentioned Bangladesh’s falling rankings in World Bank’s Doing Business and provision Performance Index between 2016 and 2018.

“We don’t see any major improvement in business surroundings. Rather, we tend to see deterioration in some areas. Then however might we tend to make a case for producing growth. of these LED to a really puzzling state of affairs,” same Selim.